The manual gearbox, and diesel engines, could be extinct in the new-car market by the end of the decade, trend analysis by data experts has revealed.
Information provided by Vehicle Data Global (VDG) has shown that while the market share of diesel has fallen most, it is the manual gearbox that is seeing its decline accelerating faster.
Analysis of this trend has also shown that the decline of the manual gearbox is underpinned by consumer preference, as much as the changing model mix in the UK market.
The company analysed millions of existing market data points to identify that it is not only replacement of internal combustion engine cars by hybrid and EV models driving decline of manual, but that share has halved since 2016, even for pure petrol and diesel models.
Both trends suggest near-simultaneous extinction as soon as 2030, with research, development and production costs increasingly seen as unviable by manufacturers.
It means the end of the traditional ‘motorway mile-muncher’ that dominated fleets and private sales just a decade ago, with diesel’s 92% collapse since 2016 and manuals standing at just 13.7% of the market so far this year.
High costs to keep manual gearbox
VDG says that the moment is approaching when declining demand is overtaken by hard economics for manufacturers reluctant to maintain the overheads and tooling to produce both systems.
While diesel’s decline is widely recognised, trend data suggests that the prospect of survival for the manual gearbox is even slimmer and VDG predicts that both may end simultaneously in the car market by the end of the decade.
Although the steep decline in the manual gearbox was first sparked by growing market share for hybrids and EVs, with automatic transmission almost by default, consumer choice is accelerating the trend.
Even among petrol and diesel car buyers, where consumers still actively have a transmission choice, manual share has fallen from 55% in 2019 to 34% in 2025.
With manufacturer conversion to automatic drivetrains gaining momentum, the economics of developing and building manual gearboxes may soon be unsustainable, VDG believes.
“The moment is fast approaching when the economics of maintaining a manual transmission option don’t add up, given the R&D, certification and other overheads of developing and refining gearboxes, even if there remains some demand in the market,” commented Ben Hermer, Operations Director of VDG.
“Based on current trend data, between 5% and 10% of cars will theoretically still be manual by 2030.
“But manufacturers will be looking hard at whether maintaining manual gearbox programmes for a shrinking share of the market makes economic sense, while they manage the overall pressures of conversion from ICE and competing with international market entrants in the EV sector.”
What does this mean for the aftermarket?
While both the manual gearbox and the diesel engine are on the verge of extinction, there are still millions of models in the UK car parc today.
For those who do not want to move to an automatic transmission, preferring the driving feel of a manual gearbox and the delicate balance of clutch control, the option would be to either stick with current models, or dip into the used car market.
The same is true of diesel. While new car sales have plummeted, the number of diesel models changing hands each quarter is still high, despite limited supply. This suggests that older diesel models are staying on the road for longer.
These trends mean that the independent aftermarket is likely to be called upon more often to keep these cars in service. With a vast majority of the UK parc over 10 years old, and the average age of a vehicle in the country increasing, the work will keep coming in.
Therefore, ensuring that you have the correct tooling and training will be essential. Diesel will not become a forgotten technology, and neither will the manual gearbox. It will therefore fall to the aftermarket to keep these fleets moving.
