GiPA UK has built a car parc forecast tool to capture a complete view of the size, age and engine type distribution of vehicles by 2025 and 2030.
The new tool aims to support aftermarket players in making informed decisions, based on the types of vehicles they may be developing for or servicing in the coming years. With the UK banning the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2030, the car parc mix is likely to become broader as drivers make the switch to zero-carbon vehicles earlier.
GiPA UK has used this tool to build two car parc scenarios and has forecast that electrified vehicles will represent between 19% and 21% of the UK passenger car parc by 2025. This means that one in five cars on the road in 2025 will be electrified, and therefore the need for planning a strategy around these models is paramount.
“It is becoming essential for aftermarket players of all kinds to integrate electrified vehicles into their medium to long term business plans,” comments GiPA UK Director, Quentin Le Hetet. “They need to understand how this will affect them, and what their response should be to this new segment in terms of equipment, staff, and training. It’s equally important for them to remember that traditional ICE cars will continue to be a significant part of the market after 2030.”
Changing times
Britain will ban the sale of pure petrol and diesel models by 2030, while hybrid and plug-in hybrids will be outlawed from new-model forecourts by 2035. At this time, only battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) or hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (FCEVs) will be allowed to be sold new.
However, it is likely that the car parc will adapt, with many drivers keeping their internal-combustion engine models as they are better suited to their driving styles. Yet cars cannot last forever, and so drivers will eventually need to make the switch.
There is also likely to be a slow in car ownership, as new leasing and sharing models, coupled with a rise in car and ride-sharing services, grow. These options reduce the cost burden on users, as there is no need to pay for vehicle excise duty or insurance.
But however car ownership changes, the aftermarket needs to be prepared, and this is where GiPA UK’s new forecast tool comes in. It is time to start thinking about the future now, as before we know it, it will be too late to learn new skills or put plans in place.
