This autumn could see an even greater surge in MOTs, as more than five million additional tests are due for annual renewal in the second half of 2021.
Continental Tyres is urging garages to be ready for what is becoming ‘MOT season’, with disruption in the testing pattern likely to last a number of years. The situation was caused by the MOT extension due to COVID-19 in 2020, and together with the sharp drop in new-vehicle sales during March, April and May last year, workshops will see a long period of quiet, followed by a rush of drivers with tests at the same time.
During the period of the extension, from 31 March to 31 July 2020, 5.3 million fewer tests took place, compared to the same period in 2019. Drivers began to re-book these postponed tests from September 2020 onwards, creating a huge surge in demand to clear this backlog, on top of tests already due in the winter months.
Now, these MOTs are once again due for their annual review, making September – December 2021 a far busier time for workshops than at other points in the year.
Seasonal adjustment
Continental Tyres’ analysis of MOT data from 2018 to 2020 has found that September 2021 will see 23% more MOTs booked than usual, with even higher increases predicted for later in the year, with around 42% more test bookings anticipated in November 2021, and 51% more expected in December 2021.
Tracey Mortimer Continental Tyres’ consumer sales director UK and Ireland believes the coronavirus-led MOT test postponements have now created a new ‘peak’ time for MOTs in the UK, which could take years to rectify. “Traditionally, there is a fairly consistent demand for MOT testing across the year,” she commented. “For example, between 3 and 3.5 million MOTs were conducted each month during 2018 and 2019, with only slight peaks in demand in March and September linked to new car registrations, and a slight dip in tests in December.
“The postponements to millions of MOTs in 2020 has now created a new seasonal demand curve, which is likely to take over 10 years to return to pre-2020 levels.”
Continental’s analysis of MOT data shows that between 800,000 and 1.2 million additional tests are due to take place each month from September to December 2021, with test rates peaking in September and October at around 4.4 – 4.5 million tests a month – significantly higher than the highest peaks in 2018 and 2019.
Long term changes
The Continental analysis of the last three years of new car registrations shows it could take up to 14 years before this curve levels out.
“Demand for MOT tests in April and May is now 2 – 2.5 million lower each month than before the pandemic,” added Mortimer. “Because MOTs are only required when a car is three years old, annual demand for MOTs during these months will only increase by the number of new cars registered in April and May three years prior.
“With typical average monthly car registrations totalling just 185,000 vehicles in April and 215,000 in May it will take many years for the April and May MOT volumes to return to previous levels.
“What’s more, in 2020 there were just 25,000 cars registered in total across the two months which is far lower than pre-pandemic levels, so we expect virtually no change in MOT demand from 2022 to 2023 when these vehicles are due their first MOT.”
